Finding Our Way Out of Reliability Hell
Esse artigo é fantástico e se aplica tremendamente ao Brasil. Desculpem os não familiarizados com a lingua inglesa, não teremos tempo para traduzi-lo.
by By George C. Loehr, Consultant
Transmission & Distribution World, Mar 1, 2001
So California has descended into the hell of uncertain supply, rolling blackouts and breathtakingly high prices.Will anyone deny that part of the United States is in a kind of reliability hell right now? Conventional wisdom says California just did it wrong; there’s really no reliability problem with deregulation. If you believe that, I have some land in Florida I’d like to sell you. Sorry, folks, but conventional wisdom is wrong. The fact of the matter is we were warned. Experts have been saying for the last 10 years that deregulation, as proposed, had major reliability problems. Unfortunately, their warnings were ignored, dismissed as "biased" and summarily voted off the island. In fact, federal and industry organizations virtually prohibited really knowledgeable people from the policy groups and independent system operator (ISO) boards as deregulation proceeded. They were too "biased." Too bad, especially if you live in California.
Deregulation works fine as long as there’s a surplus. We see that today in California with respect to generating capacity; we saw it a few years ago in the Midwest and elsewhere with respect to transmission capability. Regulators and boards don’t know what to do about it, because they have blackballed those "biased" experts.
It’s apparent that low reliability inevitably means high prices – sometimes really high prices. The proof is in the newspapers and on the evening news. And electricity, by its very nature, lacks the market responsiveness of bowling balls or breakfast cereals. So California has descended into the hell of uncertain supply, rolling blackouts and breathtakingly high prices. Other states undoubtedly will follow. This isn’t a local problem – it’s a far more fundamental one. Maybe things have finally gotten bad enough that regulators, legislators and industry associations will be forced to leave their mental bunkers and start listening to those "biased" experts.
George C. Loehr earned the BSEE degree from Manhattan College in 1962 and the MA degree in English literature from New York University in 1964. He began his engineering career in transmission planning and system dynamic analysis with the Consolidated Edison Co. of New York in 1962. He worked for the New York Power Authority as chief planning engineer from 1969 to 1972, during which time he developed that utility’s first in-house system planning organization and served on many New York Power Pool and Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) studies. In 1972, he joined NPCC as engineering manager, assembled its first engineering staff, and put together the nation’s first regionwide system for monitoring and assessing conformance with regional reliability criteria. In 1989, he was named NPCC executive director and assumed responsibility for policy matters and the overall direction of staff and committee activities. He has served on many regional and interregional committees and has been active in IEEE and North American Electric Reliability Council affairs.
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Top 10 Ways Out of Reliability Hell
*In ascending order of difficulty and/or price:
10. Forget reliability legislation
The value of mandatory conformance with reliability criteria is debatable. Likewise, the value of uniform national criteria is debatable. None of the recent problems were caused by violations of existing criteria. Legislation will do nothing to improve reliability or lower price.
9. Provide education
There is a startling lack of interest in education in both the new and old sectors of the industry – a classic case of "hubris." Many of the "new player" professionals are ignorant of the basic physics. Give your people a competitive edge – educate them. "Just do it!"
8. Broaden independent system operator (ISO) and regional transmission operator (RTO) boards
"Hubris" again? Plenty of marketing experts on boards but no reliability experts. Add a few power-system reliability experts; their expertise is sorely needed.
7. Enhance the role of the regional reliability councils
They have done an excellent job for 35 years, and they still have a role to play. Recognize that reliability is best managed from the bottom up, not the top down.
6. Promote load variability
Load reduction can be as effective as installed generation. "If you can’t raise the bridge, lower the river." Electric service providers (ESPs) can use it to reduce peak demand. Also, they should be allowed to bid it into the market.
5. Use an installed reserve capacity requirement
All ESPs should be required to meet an objectively set installed reserve, which would result in greater available generating capacity. It also reduces developers’ risk. It’s more effective and market friendly than price caps. Allow bilaterals and a power exchange. Long-term contracts are not a panacea. What looks like an attractive price today may look expensive a year from now.
4. Stop worrying about transmission
NIMBY (not in my back yard) has always been with us. Simpler state approval processes would help a lot. Merchant transmission is possible in the future, but overall planning must be addressed. If it’s cost-effective, a transmission reinforcement will get built one way or another. Transmission constraints send a market message: put generation closer to the load.
3. Full unbundling of generation and transmission is inevitable
Deal with it!
2. Have fewer control areas
The present large number of control areas is not compatible with reliability in a restructured, competitive industry. Replace them with a single new control area whenever you form an ISO/RTO. Give the system operator real authority.
1. Break up the present Eastern and Western interconnections into smaller synchronous interconnections and tie them together with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines.
DC ties are asynchronous – parallel path flows and transmission pickups after contingencies are not a problem. Marketers could actually schedule power transactions point to point. Perhaps most important, dc makes the system work the way the economists think it works. You get higher reliability – thus happy engineers. You get simpler trading arrangements – thus happy marketers. In brief, you get competition and a reliable system.
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